2026-27 NBA MVP Favorites Tier List
The ball's barely been tipped and sportsbooks already have a pecking order for MVP. We went through the odds, the voter history, and the actual arguments fans are having on forums and betting sites to rank all 11 names people keep bringing up.
This isn't just copying betting lines. Where the market and the fanbase agree, we agree. Where there's a real debate (and there's a juicy one about voter fatigue), we picked a side and explained why.
Disagree with where we slotted Luka or Cunningham? That's the fun part. Rank it yourself.
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SS Tier: The clear favorite
Victor Wembanyama
Every book has him first by a wide margin, and for good reason. Some analysts are already comparing his potential run atop this list to peak LeBron. When a guy is the unanimous DPOY pick and a Finals-caliber centerpiece at the same time, there's really no debate for the top spot.
About Victor Wembanyama
San Antonio Spurs center known for a rare combination of shot-blocking, rebounding and perimeter shooting at his size. Durability has been the main question through his first seasons.
- Position
- Center
- Team
- San Antonio Spurs
Also ranked in: Fantasy Basketball Rankings 2026-27: Full Tier List
AA Tier: Real contenders
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
The two-time reigning MVP sits at number two almost everywhere, and the only thing really working against him is history. Nobody's won three straight since Larry Bird in 1986, and that voter fatigue is a real headwind even though his game hasn't dropped off at all. Some sharp bettors call him the best value on the board right now, arguing the market is overrating the fatigue narrative.
About Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the leading scorer and defensive anchor for the Oklahoma City Thunder, emerging as one of the league's top players in the 2020s.
- Team
- Oklahoma City Thunder
Also ranked in: Greatest NBA Point Guards Tier List, Ranked
Nikola Jokić
Three MVPs and counting means voters never stop taking him seriously, and his odds hover in that +500 to +600 range for a reason. Consistency is his whole case, and it's a strong one.
About Nikola Jokić
All-NBA center for the Denver Nuggets, widely regarded as the most complete fantasy producer in basketball. Known for elite efficiency paired with huge rebound and assist totals for his position.
- Position
- Center
- Team
- Denver Nuggets
Also ranked in: Fantasy Basketball Rankings 2026-27: Full Tier List
Luka Dončić
Luka shows up near the top of this list every single season, posts numbers that look like an MVP's, and somehow never actually wins it. CBS Sports basically nailed it: he's the perpetual bridesmaid of this race, and until that changes he's a true contender but not quite the favorite.
About Luka Dončić
Luka Dončić entered the NBA in 2018 and quickly became a superstar for the Dallas Mavericks, leading them to the 2024 NBA Finals.
- Draft
- 2018
Also ranked in: Greatest NBA Point Guards Tier List, Ranked
BB Tier: Dark horses with a path
Giannis Antetokounmpo
New city, new jersey, same ceiling. Moving to Miami adds real uncertainty, nobody knows yet if a fresh system unlocks him or just creates early-season friction. Books have him in the +1000 to +1200 range, which feels about right for a former multi-time MVP who's still an obvious top-five talent but has a chemistry question mark hanging over him.
About Giannis Antetokounmpo
Former Milwaukee Bucks superstar forward now with the Miami Heat heading into 2026-27. Known for dominant interior scoring, rebounding and shot-blocking from the forward spot.
- Position
- Forward
- Team
- Miami Heat
Also ranked in: Fantasy Basketball Rankings 2026-27: Full Tier List
Cade Cunningham
The dark horse with actual receipts. He finished 5th in MVP voting last season, and the stat that keeps getting repeated is that 16 of the last 26 MVPs played for the team with the best conference record. If Cunningham's team keeps climbing the standings, this stops being a sleeper pick and starts being a real conversation.
About Cade Cunningham
Guard known for his playmaking and scoring growth, finishing 5th in MVP voting last season. Considered a dark-horse candidate for this year's award.
- Position
- Guard
- Last season MVP finish
- 5th
Anthony Edwards
Sitting in that +1500 to +2500 bucket alongside Tatum and Cunningham, Edwards has the star power and highlight reel to stay in the conversation all year. He's not getting the same dark-horse buzz as Cunningham right now, but one big hot streak changes that fast.
About Anthony Edwards
Minnesota Timberwolves guard known for his explosive athleticism and highlight-reel dunks. A rising star in the MVP conversation.
- Team
- Minnesota Timberwolves
- Position
- Guard
Also ranked in: Fantasy Basketball Rankings 2026-27: Full Tier List
Jayson Tatum
He's got the resume and the name recognition to always be mentioned, but right now he's bunched in with the +1500 to +2500 group rather than standing out from it. Nobody's specifically making the case for him over Edwards or Cunningham this season, which is exactly why he lands in this tier instead of higher.
About Jayson Tatum
Boston Celtics forward known for his scoring versatility and perennial All-Star and All-NBA level play.
- Team
- Boston Celtics
- Position
- Forward
Also ranked in: Fantasy Basketball Rankings 2026-27: Full Tier List
CC Tier: Great players, long odds
Donovan Mitchell
Mitchell doesn't show up in the research with any real MVP buzz this season, which tells you where the market has him. He's a legitimate All-Star, but without a specific narrative pushing his name up the odds board, this is a long-shot slot.
About Donovan Mitchell
Utah Jazz star guard who won the Slam Dunk Contest, wearing a Vince Carter throwback jersey in tribute during his performance.
- Contest Win
- 2018
- Team at time
- Utah Jazz
Also ranked in: Fantasy Basketball Rankings 2026-27: Full Tier List, NBA Slam Dunk Contest Winners, Ranked
Jaylen Brown
Same story as Mitchell. Talented, part of a good team, but not someone sportsbooks or analysts are flagging as a real MVP threat heading into this season. He'd need a huge leap in usage and numbers to climb out of this tier.
About Jaylen Brown
Forward known for his two-way play and championship pedigree, not currently a featured name in MVP odds discussions.
- Position
- Forward
Also ranked in: Fantasy Basketball Rankings 2026-27: Full Tier List
DD Tier: Would need chaos to win
Paolo Banchero
Banchero isn't turning up in any of the odds conversations or expert predictor lists for this race right now. That doesn't mean he's a bad player, it just means nobody's betting on this being his MVP year.
About Paolo Banchero
Orlando Magic forward known for his scoring and playmaking growth, not currently appearing in MVP odds or expert predictions for this season.
- Team
- Orlando Magic
- Position
- Forward
Also ranked in: Fantasy Basketball Rankings 2026-27: Full Tier List
How we ranked them
We weighed current sportsbook odds, last season's actual MVP voting results, team strength and projected wins, and the historical patterns that tend to decide this award (age, All-NBA status, voter fatigue after back-to-back wins). We also factored in team context changes, like Giannis landing in Miami, that could help or hurt a case. Tiers reflect realistic chance to win, not just who's a great player.
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Rank these yourselfFAQ
Who is the favorite to win 2026-27 NBA MVP?
Victor Wembanyama. He's the clear consensus pick across sportsbooks and expert predictors, carrying roughly 35% market probability at some books, more than double his closest competitor.
Can Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win a third straight MVP?
It's possible but history is against him. No player has won three consecutive MVPs since Larry Bird in 1986, and voter fatigue is the main reason he's slotted second behind Wembanyama despite his level of play not dropping.
Is Cade Cunningham really an MVP candidate?
He's being treated as a legitimate dark horse. He finished 5th in MVP voting last season, and analysts point to the historical trend of MVPs often coming from the team with the best conference record as his path.
Why isn't Luka Doncic ranked as the top favorite?
Luka consistently starts seasons near the top of MVP odds and posts huge numbers, but he's never actually won the award. That pattern, plus complications from his roster situation, keeps him just outside the very top spot this time.
How does Giannis Antetokounmpo's move to Miami affect his MVP odds?
It adds real uncertainty. Nobody knows yet whether a new system and new teammates boost his numbers or create early chemistry issues, which is why he sits in the mid-tier of odds rather than near the top.
More rankings
Image credits
- Victor WembanyamaPhoto: Frenchieinportland, CC BY 4.0 (Wikimedia Commons) · License · Source
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPhoto: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0 (Wikimedia Commons) · License · Source
- Nikola JokićPhoto: All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0 (Wikimedia Commons) · License · Source
- Luka DončićPhoto: U.S. Embassy Ljubljana, Public domain (Wikimedia Commons) · Source
- Giannis AntetokounmpoPhoto: Erik Drost, CC BY 2.0 (Wikimedia Commons) · License · Source
- Cade CunninghamPhoto: Erik Drost, CC BY 2.0 (Wikimedia Commons) · License · Source
- Anthony EdwardsPhoto: Bryan Berlin, CC BY-SA 4.0 (Wikimedia Commons) · License · Source
- Jayson TatumPhoto: Hameltion, CC BY-SA 4.0 (Wikimedia Commons) · License · Source
- Donovan MitchellPhoto: Erik Drost, CC BY 2.0 (Wikimedia Commons) · License · Source
- Jaylen BrownPhoto: Hameltion, CC BY-SA 4.0 (Wikimedia Commons) · License · Source
- Paolo BancheroPhoto: Al Ward, CC BY 3.0 (Wikimedia Commons) · License · Source